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How Does a Comeback Happen?

November 5, 2016

 The Chicago Cubs came back from a deficit in the World Series to win in one of the most wild game sevens in history.  Statisticians pointed out that that outcome had far less probability than a Donald Trump win. This thought, and the polls showing the presidential race as tight as it has been all year, worries a lot of people.  Uncertainty is what fuels sports. It's also what has fuelled Donald Trumps run atop the media. He has remained the centre of  attention for months. The graph below tracks network television mentions of presidential candidates. Trump is in blue. Hillary is in black. As you can see, Trump has dominated mentions in the news, mostly bouncing between 50% and 70%. He has also been behind in the polls for most of the campaign. The exceptions to that coincide with the times Hillary has tied or surpassed Trump on this metric(such as this week). The reason for that being, that the news about both candidates has been almost exclusively negative. There is a lot of uncertainty about the election right now. This chart won't be able to tell you who wins, but if it stays tight over the next four days expect a tight election. If Trump pulls away in television mentions you can be quite sure of a Hillary win.  Here's the link: Campaign Tracker

 

 

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